Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

基于数据站场的系统效能评估决策支持方法

随着信息技术的发展,系统信息量的提升给军事系统效能评估带来了新的问题。针对系统效能分析数据非线性、高维数、强耦合的特点,提出了一种基于数据站场技术的效能评估决策支持方法。通过数据恢复、约减、求精与重构操作,对评估数据进行了处理,并搭建了数据站场立方体,降低了数据间的依赖性,满足了不同层面系统分析的需求。以面向任务的网络化火控系统的为例,进行了系统效能评估、时效性评估和指标分析,从三个层次验证了方法的有效性与可行性。将数据挖掘技术应用到仿真系统效能评估决策中,获得了更广泛的应用。     

LEO卫星网络路径选择策略

路由算法在选择路径时,主要考虑传输延迟和跳数这两个因素,分别选取最短延迟路径(Least Delay Path,LDP)或最少跳数路径(Least Hops Path,LHP)。在卫星网络中,基于LHP选径策略实现更加简单,但其应用在LEO卫星网络中合理性的研究成果不多。对极轨道LEO卫星网络中,LDP和LHP之间关系进行详细地理论分析,验证了LHP选径策略的合理性。并在此基础上,提出一种基于横向传输优先级(Horizontal Transmitting Priority,HTP)的LHP最短路径选择策略,利用横向链路长短特性简化路径决策流程。通过仿真,该方法能够快速寻找到最短LHP路径,为LEO卫星网络路由算法提供一定的研究基础。     

一类分段线性费用网络流问题

本文通过把一类分段线性费用网络流问题化成线性费用网络流问题,给出了求解这类分段线性费用网络流问题的算法。     

卫星在役考核相关问题研究

各类卫星在现代战争中发挥着重要和关键作用。我国传统的卫星试验和鉴定具有很强的科研试验性质,承制单位和用户重点关注的是性能检验,较少考虑作战效能和部队适用性等指标。为推动卫星装备建设和应用,装备试验鉴定部门初步组织开展了相应的在役考核工作。文章对比了美军装备作战试验与鉴定、我国作战试验与在役考核的概念;提出卫星在役考核的六大特点;分析卫星在役考核的组织方式、组织机构和组织保障的不足,提出相应发展建议;研究卫星在役考核指标体系设计、分析评估方法、问题反馈与整改等方面的不足,并提出相应措施建议。     

两级滤波结构的导航卫星天线阵抗干扰算法

干扰和多径是影响接收机导航定位性能的两个主要因素。针对卫星导航接收机的抗干扰问题,提出了一种基于两级滤波结构的卫星导航天线阵抗干扰算法。第一级滤波采用功率倒置算法抑制干扰,通过相关解扩提高卫星信号的信噪比,并估计出其空间特征矢量。第二级滤波用估计得到的卫星信号空间特征矢量对第一级滤波输出信号进行加权处理,从而形成指向卫星信号方向的主波束来进一步提高信噪比。仿真结果表明,该算法的性能明显优于功率倒置算法,且非常接近传统的波束形成算法,不需要阵列校正以及姿态测量单元辅助,其实现代价远小于传统的波束形成算法。     

机动发射条件下助推滑翔导弹射击诸元快速解算

针对机动发射条件下助推滑翔导弹对全程弹道快速生成的迫切需求,在弹道设计中选取7个关键性控制量参数作为全程弹道射击诸元,并提出与之相对应的诸元解算算法。将全程弹道分为助推段、初始下降段、滑翔段和俯冲攻击段,在统一化运动模型描述的基础上,运用参数化迭代的思路,依次对不同飞行阶段诸元进行了快速求解,满足多种复杂约束条件。在全程诸元迭代解算模式的基础上,提出助推段沿用中心弹道诸元,仅对其他射击诸元进行重计算的部分诸元迭代解算模式。仿真结果表明:采用所提助推滑翔导弹射击诸元快速解算方法,可在大范围机动条件下对远距离地面固定目标进行快速精确打击。     

On the uncapacitated K‐commodity network design problem with zero flow‐costs

Extending Sastry's result on the uncapacitated two‐commodity network design problem, we completely characterize the optimal solution of the uncapacitated K‐commodity network design problem with zero flow costs for the case when K = 3. By solving a set of shortest‐path problems on related graphs, we show that the optimal solutions can be found in O(n³) time when K = 3, where n is the number of nodes in the network. The algorithm depends on identifying a list of “basic patterns”; the number of basic patterns grows exponentially with K. We also show that the uncapacitated K‐commodity network design problem can be solved in O(n³) time for general K if K is fixed; otherwise, the time for solving the problem is exponential. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Walker星座自主定轨误差分析

通过对Walker星座中卫星间的相对运动进行分析,给出星间相对距离的解析表达式及其对轨道根数的偏导数,直观地描述在同轨道面和异轨道面的星间观测对轨道根数变化的体现情况;根据星座中卫星的相对位置,提出合理的约束条件和平差方法,利用星间测距网实现星座的整网定位;通过仿真算例,比较在不同情况下,采用合适的整网定位方法对轨道根数的系统误差和随机误差修正的情况。